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Where Will Cyclone In India Today Be 1 Year From Now?

 

Thousands evacuated in India as strong cyclone approaches

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Thousands of emergency personnel have been deployed in coastal regions of the two states for evacuation and possible rescue operations, said S.N. Pradhan, director of India’s National Disaster Response Force. India’s air force and navy were also on standby to carry out relief work.

Last May, nearly 100 people died in Cyclone Amphan, the most powerful storm in more than a decade to hit eastern India, including West Bengal state. It flattened villages, destroyed farms and left millions without power in eastern India and Bangladesh.

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“We haven’t been able to fix the damage to our home from the last cyclone. Now another cyclone is coming, how will we stay here?” said Samitri, who uses only one name.

In Odisha, a state already battered by coronavirus infections, authorities evacuated nearly 15,000 people living along the coast and moved them to cyclone shelters, senior officer Pradeep Jena said.

In a televised address Monday, the state’s chief minister, Naveen Patnaik, appealed to people being moved to cyclone shelters to wear double masks and maintain social distancing. He asked authorities to distribute masks to the evacuated people.

Cyclone Yaas churning toward India at hurricane strength, landfall predicted Wednesday

a close up of a snow covered mountain: Cyclone Yaas bears down on India late Tuesday local time. (RAMMB/CIRA)Cyclone Yaas bears down on India late Tuesday local time. (RAMMB/CIRA)

Cyclone Yaas hit hurricane strength in the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday, gaining force as it churns toward India and prepares to make landfall Wednesday morning local time. Strong winds, flooding rains and a coastal storm surge, or a rise in ocean water above normally dry land, are possible as Yaas becomes India’s second landfalling tropical cyclone in a week and a half.

Just last Monday, “extremely severe cyclonic storm” Tauktae raked Gujarat, north of the Arabian Sea on India’s west coast, with Category 3 gusts well over 100 mph. Nearly 100 were killed by the storm, which caused more than $2.1 billion in damage.

‘Extremely severe’ Cyclone Tauktae slams into Gujarat, India

The back-to-back storms come as India’s covid-19 death rate continues to sit at more than 4,000 a day, with the nation of more than 1.3 billion people now a global epicenter of the unrelenting pandemic.

As of Tuesday evening local time, Yaas had winds of 75 mph, crossing the threshold of a low-end Category 1 hurricane equivalent. It was about 150 miles south of Kolkata in West Bengal, along India’s northeast coast, or roughly south of the India-Bangladesh border. The storm was moving slightly west of due north at 10 mph.

water next to the ocean: A view of high tide in the Bay Of Bengal before Cyclone Yaas arrives in Digha, 130 miles south of Kolkata, Eastern India, on May 25. (Piyal Adhikary/EPE-EFE/Shutterstock)A view of high tide in the Bay Of Bengal before Cyclone Yaas arrives in Digha, 130 miles south of Kolkata, Eastern India, on May 25. (Piyal Adhikary/EPE-EFE/Shutterstock)

On satellite imagery, a region of strong thunderstorms can be seen making up the “central dense overcast,” or core, of the storm, within which strong winds and heavy rainfall are ongoing. Along the periphery of the storm, healthy outflow, or exhaust, can be seen evacuating air at high altitudes to allow the storm to intensify. Notice the strips of cloud cover leading away from the storm.

Tens of thousands have been evacuated inland. India has stepped up its advanced preparation procedures considerably in the past two decades after roughly 10,000 people perished in the 1999 Odisha Cyclone.

Maximum wave heights offshore could exceed 60 feet; that prompted the India Meteorological Department to issue a warning for mariners “not to venture into central Bay of Bengal during 24th-25th May.”

The agency also issued wind and storm surge warnings, noting the potential for serious damage to vulnerable infrastructure in Odisha and West Bengal.

“Total destruction of thatched houses [and] extensive damage to kutcha houses” is possible, wrote the India Meteorological Department, along with a “potential threat from flying objects.”

They also noted the risk of damage to communication lines, disruption of rail travel and transportation systems and the destruction of crops, such as coconuts, palms and mango.

Yaas is expected to make landfall Wednesday morning as a high-end Category 1 or a Category 2 storm, maintaining current strength or increasingly in intensity slightly. That means winds along the immediate shoreline could gust upward of 90 mph. The India Meteorological Department is calling for “extremely heavy rainfall” with up to 8 inches in spots.

Some cities near or just west of Yaas’s center could pick up as much as a foot, especially places west of Kolkata, like Bhubaneswar and Cuttack. While the region is accustomed to hefty monsoonal rainfall with average totals of 100 inches or more, the rapidity with which rain may fall early Wednesday could bring instances of urban flooding.

Potentially more concerning is the propensity for coastal inundation associated with Yaas’s storm surge. While the storm isn’t overly powerful in comparison to other cyclones India has dealt with, the slope of the seafloor, known as bathymetry, will enhance the threat of dangerous storm surge flooding. The Bay of Bengal has an extensive continental shelf, meaning the seafloor is relatively shallow, making it easier to displace larger amounts of water inland.

map: Heavy rainfall is likely in India where Yaas makes landfall. (WeatherBell)Heavy rainfall is likely in India where Yaas makes landfall. (WeatherBell)

“Tidal waves of height 2 to 4 meters above astronomical tide are likely to inundate low-lying areas of Balasore [and] Bhadrak,” stated the India Meteorological Department.

Any surge will make it more challenging for rainfall to drain out of rivers like the Hooghly, exacerbating flood concerns even more.

Rahul Ghandi, a member of the Indian Parliament, took to Twitter to plead with fellow politicians to allocate funds and resources to aid in preparation and evacuation efforts.

“I appeal to Congress workers to provide all assistance ensuring safety of those affected,” he wrote.

Yaas will weaken as it moves inland, largely dissipating from a wind perspective by Thursday. Heavy rainfall will continue inland and affect much of the high terrain approaching the Himalayas.


Where Will 

UN agencies ready to support Cyclone Yaas response efforts in India: UN spokesperson

As Tropical Cyclone Yaas ravaged parts of India's eastern coast, a spokesperson for UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has said the world body and its agencies stand ready to support the response efforts if state authorities request it, while expressing concern that lack of social distancing in emergency shelters and temporary suspension of vaccination campaigns amid the COVID-19 pandemic could further complicate the health crisis.

"From South Asia, which is being impacted currently by Tropical Cyclone Yaas, our humanitarian colleagues tell us that we have activated cyclone preparedness measures and prepositioned stocks of food and other items,” Stephane Dujarric, Spokesman for the Secretary-General, said at the daily press briefing on Wednesday.

ALSO READ: Cyclone Yaas ravages Odisha, seawater enters villages, sweeps away huts: A look at the impact

“The cyclone reached the Indian state of Odisha yesterday, with millions of people being evacuated by the Government ahead of the storm. UN agencies and our partners in India stand ready to support the response efforts if State authorities request it,” he said.

UN humanitarian colleagues in Nepal say the country could also experience heavy rainfall with floods and landslides over the coming hours, Dujarric said, adding that in Bangladesh, "our colleagues say the cyclone has not impacted Cox’s Bazar, but they are closely monitoring the situation due to the possibility of storm surges and embankment collapse in border areas." Cox's Bazar is home to the world's largest refugee camp, with nearly a million Rohingya migrants residing at the enclosures in Ukhiya and Teknaf Upazilas.

“As you know, India, Bangladesh and Nepal are all grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic. We are concerned that the lack of social distancing in emergency shelters and the temporary suspension of vaccination campaigns could complicate already complicated efforts,” he said.

Cyclone Yaas, packing winds gusting to 145 kmph whiplashed parts of India’s eastern coast on Wednesday, killing at least four people and leaving behind a trail of damaged homes and flooded farmland, forcing more than 21 lakh people to be evacuated to safe shelters in the states of West Bengal, Odisha and Jharkhand.

The cyclone, which made landfall around 9 am near Dhamra port in Odisha, is the second cyclonic storm to hit India within a week after Tauktae tore into its western coast, causing death and destruction.

Odisha shifted 6.5 lakh people to safer places, and West Bengal 15 lakh people, ahead of the cyclone, amid concerns over spread of COVID-19 infection at the temporary shelters, given the fact that the country is battling the raging second wave of the pandemic.

Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik ordered health screening of all the 6.5 lakh people taken to the cyclone shelters, including COVID-19 tests if required.

Officials said similar health screenings were also planned for the shelters in Bengal. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said relief materials worth Rs 10 crore have been sent to the affected areas.

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https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/cyclone.php




Cyclone In India Today Be 1 Year From Now?

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